Original SolarSavings.energy modeling study
Solar costs in 2026: 100 transparent home scenarios.
We modeled the same transparent calculator method across five states, five monthly-bill levels, and four home sizes. This is not a quote database or homeowner survey—it is a reproducible planning study designed to show why one-size-fits-all solar claims are weak.
Scenarios
100
5 states × 5 bills × 4 home sizes
Modeled system range
2.4–17.6 kW
Roof-capacity limited, one-story planning model
Modeled cost range
$8,194–$47,547
Cash-price planning inputs, before financing
Year-one net value
$271–$3,132
After the calculator’s annual maintenance assumption
Methodology
Every scenario uses the same visible rules.
- 1. Monthly electric bills of $100, $150, $200, $250, and $300 are converted into annual electricity use using the calculator’s state planning rate.
- 2. Homes are modeled at 1,200, 1,600, 2,000, and 2,400 square feet with a one-story roof-footprint assumption.
- 3. System size is limited by both modeled electricity use and usable roof capacity; state solar-resource assumptions affect production.
- 4. Bill value accounts for an export-credit assumption and deducts the calculator’s $300/year maintenance assumption. It does not promise a utility bill will disappear.
The modeled simple-payback range among scenarios that break even is 15.2–42.8 years. A real estimate needs a ZIP code, current tariff, roof orientation, shade, financing terms, and actual installer proposal.
Modeled averages by state
| State | Scenarios | Avg. system | Avg. cost | Avg. year-one net value | Median simple payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 20 | 4.8 kW | $16,395 | $842 | 19.5 yrs |
| Texas | 20 | 10.8 kW | $28,101 | $931 | 29.8 yrs |
| Florida | 20 | 11.2 kW | $30,105 | $1,873 | 16.0 yrs |
| Arizona | 20 | 9.6 kW | $24,928 | $1,506 | 16.5 yrs |
| Nevada | 20 | 10.7 kW | $29,826 | $1,429 | 20.7 yrs |
What this study does not claim
- It is not a survey of actual customer quotes, prices, savings, or installation outcomes.
- It does not model a particular roof, shade pattern, electric rate plan, battery, loan, utility tariff, or incentive eligibility.
- It does not replace an installer's engineering assessment or a homeowner's review of a written contract.
Sources and calculator assumptions
Replace a model with your own home details.
Use your ZIP code, electricity bill, home size, and optional address for a more personal planning estimate.
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