Original SolarSavings.energy modeling study
Solar costs in 2026: 100 transparent home scenarios.
We modeled the same transparent calculator method across five states, five monthly-bill levels, and four home sizes. This is not a quote database or homeowner survey—it is a reproducible planning study designed to show why one-size-fits-all solar claims are weak.
Scenarios
100
5 states × 5 bills × 4 home sizes
Modeled system range
2.4–17.6 kW
Roof-capacity limited, one-story planning model
Modeled cost range
$8,194–$47,547
Cash-price planning inputs, before financing
Year-one net value
$271–$3,132
After the calculator’s annual maintenance assumption
Methodology
Every scenario uses the same visible rules.
- 1. Monthly electric bills of $100, $150, $200, $250, and $300 are converted into annual electricity use using the calculator’s state planning rate.
- 2. Homes are modeled at 1,200, 1,600, 2,000, and 2,400 square feet with a one-story roof-footprint assumption.
- 3. System size is limited by both modeled electricity use and usable roof capacity; state solar-resource assumptions affect production.
- 4. Bill value accounts for an export-credit assumption and deducts the calculator’s $300/year maintenance assumption. It does not promise a utility bill will disappear.
The modeled simple-payback range among scenarios that break even is 15.2–42.8 years. A real estimate needs a ZIP code, current tariff, roof orientation, shade, financing terms, and actual installer proposal.
Modeled averages by state
| State | Scenarios | Avg. system | Avg. cost | Avg. year-one net value | Median simple payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 20 | 4.8 kW | $16,395 | $842 | 19.5 yrs |
| Texas | 20 | 10.8 kW | $28,101 | $931 | 29.8 yrs |
| Florida | 20 | 11.2 kW | $30,105 | $1,873 | 16.0 yrs |
| Arizona | 20 | 9.6 kW | $24,928 | $1,506 | 16.5 yrs |
| Nevada | 20 | 10.7 kW | $29,826 | $1,429 | 20.7 yrs |
Five transparent examples
Same method, different homes, different planning results.
These examples are selected from the 100 modeled scenarios. They are illustrations—not customer quotes, not average local offers, and not promises of savings.
CA example
Higher-bill California home
- Bill input
- $300/mo
- Home input
- 2,000 sq ft
- Modeled system
- 7.2 kW
- Modeled cost
- $24,582
- Year-one net value
- $1,413
TX example
Typical Texas planning case
- Bill input
- $200/mo
- Home input
- 2,000 sq ft
- Modeled system
- 11.3 kW
- Modeled cost
- $29,354
- Year-one net value
- $986
FL example
Larger Florida cooling-load case
- Bill input
- $250/mo
- Home input
- 2,400 sq ft
- Modeled system
- 14.7 kW
- Modeled cost
- $39,636
- Year-one net value
- $2,561
AZ example
Arizona planning case
- Bill input
- $200/mo
- Home input
- 1,600 sq ft
- Modeled system
- 9.8 kW
- Modeled cost
- $25,428
- Year-one net value
- $1,542
NV example
Nevada planning case
- Bill input
- $150/mo
- Home input
- 1,600 sq ft
- Modeled system
- 8.3 kW
- Modeled cost
- $23,296
- Year-one net value
- $1,050
State research links
The inputs are national; utility and incentive rules are not.
These low-profile state guides add the local checks that this study intentionally cannot settle. They are designed for homeowners who arrive from search, not as a replacement for an installer's local service page.
What this study does not claim
- It is not a survey of actual customer quotes, prices, savings, or installation outcomes.
- It does not model a particular roof, shade pattern, electric rate plan, battery, loan, utility tariff, or incentive eligibility.
- It does not replace an installer's engineering assessment or a homeowner's review of a written contract.
Sources and calculator assumptions
Replace a model with your own home details.
Use your ZIP code, electricity bill, home size, and optional address for a more personal planning estimate.
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